Many forecasting models use parameters that are estimated using nonlinear optimization. A good…

Many forecasting models use parameters that are estimated using nonlinear optimization. A good example is the Bass model introduced in this chapter. Another example is the exponential smoothing forecasting model discussed in Chapter 8. The exponential smoothing model is common in practice and is described in further detail in Chapter 8. For instance, the basic exponential smoothing model for forecasting sales is

Many forecasting models use parameters that are estimated using nonlinear optimization. A good...-1

Where

Many forecasting models use parameters that are estimated using nonlinear optimization. A good...-2

This model is used recursively; the forecast for time period t + 1 is based on the forecast for period t, yˆt, the observed value of sales in period t, yt, and the smoothing parameter a. The use of this model to forecast sales for 12 months is illustrated in the following table with the smoothing constant a 5 0.3. The forecast errors, y yˆ t t 2 , are calculated in the fourth column. The value of a is often chosen by minimizing the sum of squared forecast errors. The last column of the table shows the square of the forecast error and the sum of squared forecast errors. In using exponential smoothing models, one tries to choose the value of a that provides the best forecasts. a. The file ExpSmooth contains the observed data shown here. Construct this table using the formula above. Note that we set the forecast in period 1 to the observed in period 1 to get started ( y y ˆ1 1 5 5 17), then the formula above for ˆyt11 is used starting in period 2. Make sure to have a single cell corresponding to a in your spreadsheet model. After confirming the values in the table below with a 5 0.3, try different values of a to see if you can get a smaller sum of squared forecast errors. Many forecasting models use parameters that are estimated using nonlinear optimization. A good...-3

b.      Use Excel Solver to find the value of a that minimizes the sum of squared forecast errors.

 

Calculate the price
Make an order in advance and get the best price
Pages (550 words)
$0.00
*Price with a welcome 15% discount applied.
Pro tip: If you want to save more money and pay the lowest price, you need to set a more extended deadline.
We know how difficult it is to be a student these days. That's why our prices are one of the most affordable on the market, and there are no hidden fees.

Instead, we offer bonuses, discounts, and free services to make your experience outstanding.
How it works
Receive a 100% original paper that will pass Turnitin from a top essay writing service
step 1
Upload your instructions
Fill out the order form and provide paper details. You can even attach screenshots or add additional instructions later. If something is not clear or missing, the writer will contact you for clarification.
Pro service tips
How to get the most out of your experience with My Study Writers
One writer throughout the entire course
If you like the writer, you can hire them again. Just copy & paste their ID on the order form ("Preferred Writer's ID" field). This way, your vocabulary will be uniform, and the writer will be aware of your needs.
The same paper from different writers
You can order essay or any other work from two different writers to choose the best one or give another version to a friend. This can be done through the add-on "Same paper from another writer."
Copy of sources used by the writer
Our college essay writers work with ScienceDirect and other databases. They can send you articles or materials used in PDF or through screenshots. Just tick the "Copy of sources" field on the order form.
Testimonials
See why 20k+ students have chosen us as their sole writing assistance provider
Check out the latest reviews and opinions submitted by real customers worldwide and make an informed decision.
Business Studies
Paper is great. Just only needed the one reference. Thank you
Customer 453139, May 4th, 2022
Social Sciences
Very fast report with excellent information on the topic. Thank you for your speedy service in such a short time.
Customer 453213, June 15th, 2022
Psychology
quick and before due date/time.
Customer 453027, January 29th, 2022
English 101
very good paper thank you.
Customer 453083, February 18th, 2022
Nursing
Impressive writing
Customer 452547, February 6th, 2021
Criminal Justice
The paper was not accused of plagiarism and was written very well. I will let you know the grade once it is graded. Thank you
Customer 452671, April 26th, 2021
English 101
Thank you for this excellent analysis of the Alchemist.
Customer 453213, June 15th, 2022
Literature
Thank you!
Customer 453145, April 19th, 2022
Management
It's the second time I use this service and it does not let me down. Work quality is so good for its price!
Customer 452985, December 3rd, 2021
Psychology
thank you!
Customer 452947, October 21st, 2021
Nursing
I just need some minor alterations. Thanks.
Customer 452547, February 10th, 2021
Psychology
Received before the deadline. Great job!
Customer 453027, January 15th, 2022
11,595
Customer reviews in total
96%
Current satisfaction rate
3 pages
Average paper length
37%
Customers referred by a friend
OUR GIFT TO YOU
15% OFF your first order
Use a coupon FIRST15 and enjoy expert help with any task at the most affordable price.
Claim my 15% OFF Order in Chat
Live ChatWhatsApp