# Bharat Steel Co. Mr.Sinha, Operations Manager at Bharat Steel Co has analysed the company’s…

Bharat Steel Co.

Mr.Sinha, Operations Manager at Bharat Steel Co has analysed the company’s production pattern for one product in order to be able to estimate the demand for the next year. Demand data for last four years were collected and are as follows:

Qty in NOS:–

 Period (Year & Quarter) Cupboard 2016 Q1 600 Q2 550 Q3 500 Q4 650 2017 Q1 700 Q2 600 Q3 500 Q4 750 2018 Q1 750 Q2 650 Q3 550 Q4 780 2019 Q1 780 Q2 650 Q3 550 Q4 518

Mr.Sinha applied different quantitative methods of forecasting on the above and obtained the following summary of results (including his estimations where required):

Cupboard

 Regression line 559+(10.78*period) Coefficient of determ R^2 0.22 Significance F 0.06 F 4.04 Intercept 559 Coefficient for Period 10.78 Pvalue for Period 0.064 (1) Predictions for 4 quarters (using linear regression) 742, 753, 764, 775 (2) Estimates using 4p- moving average for 4 qtrs 708, 690, 700, 737 (3) Estimates using exponential smoothing (0.3) for 4qtrs 708, 708, 708, 708

Q1.Study the above demand pattern carefully and also summary figures for the different methods of forecasting applied. Analyse which method is likely to give the best results. Is there a better method of forecasting for the product than given above? If yes, discuss briefly and estimate results for your suggested method for 4 quarters.

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